China's H1 Crude Imports Post Sharpest Drop Since War Began

China's crude oil imports fell sharply from March to June 2026, with May recording a ~47% year-on-year decline, driven by conflict-related disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz that severely curtailed tanker traffic through a waterway handling ~20% of global oil trade. While a partial normalization has begun following the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum between the US and Iran, shipping traffic through Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels, keeping VLCC freight rates elevated and the AG-to-China route in an oversupplied state as of early July 2026.