Four routes and a reprieve: How El Niño 2026 could reshape global shipping operations

The 2026 El Niño, declared by NOAA in June 2026 and forecast to reach moderate-to-strong intensity by fall, poses distinct operational risks across five major shipping corridors, including the Eastern Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Atlantic. The Panama Canal is identified as the most critical chokepoint, with drought-driven transit restrictions potentially replicating the 2023–24 crisis when daily transits halved and LNG carrier transits fell 66%, forcing widespread global rerouting.