Tanker Market: Russian Fuel System in Limbo
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have taken ~20% of Russia's refining capacity offline, redirecting more crude into seaborne exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports while cutting refined product exports by 17% YoY in Q2 2026. This creates a divergence between crude tanker demand (supported by higher Aframax/Suezmax liftings from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk) and product tanker demand (weakened), with elevated operational risk and loading unreliability at western Russian ports.