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Following an interim U.S.-Iran deal announced on June 15, 2026, fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are slowly recovering after a near-closure during the 3.5-month war, but over 500 ships remain stranded in the Gulf with traffic at a fraction of pre-conflict levels. Analysts warn that full recovery to pre-war transit volumes is unlikely before August at the earliest, due to ongoing de-mining needs, vessel backlogs, damaged production facilities, and security concerns after a reported attack paused IMO escort operations.
The Strait of Hormuz remains only partially navigable following a conflict that began on February 28, with tanker transits still well below pre-crisis levels of 90–110 vessels per day and cargo throughput at roughly half of pre-conflict crude levels. While empty tankers are repositioning into the Gulf in anticipation of resumed exports, persistent security risks, war-risk insurance costs, and a massive vessel backlog are keeping the global tanker market in a fragile, volatile state with significant route disruptions and rate swings.
A CIMSEC editorial series covers the ongoing 'Iran War' and its maritime dimensions, particularly the military contest over the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted global trade and shipping routes. The closure or restriction of the Strait of Hormuz is described as having strongly affected the world economy, with significant implications for vessel transits through this critical chokepoint.
The IMO has suspended transits through the Strait of Hormuz following an attack on an Evergreen vessel, after Iran declared on 25 June 2026 that unauthorized transits of the strait were illegal. This critical chokepoint closure poses severe disruption to global shipping routes, particularly for oil tankers and container vessels transiting between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.
Ships were reportedly hit in the Strait of Hormuz during the week ending 28 June 2026, indicating potential security-driven disruptions to one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. Vessel rerouting, slowdowns, or heightened risk advisories may affect shipping traffic transiting the strait.
A Gazprom-owned LNG carrier, Marshal Vasilevskiy, has been spotted transiting the Baltic Sea armed with heavy machine guns and staffed by Russian military-linked personnel, marking an unprecedented militarisation of a commercial vessel. This development heightens security tensions in the Baltic, potentially affecting shipping routes and NATO surveillance operations in the region, particularly around the Kaliningrad corridor between Poland and Lithuania.
Ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have significantly slowed energy shipping traffic, with overall tanker sailings well below pre-conflict levels of 125 daily, though Middle East producers continue oil and LNG loadings amid a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Multiple VLCCs are transiting with transponders switched off ('going dark') to reduce attack risk, indicating ongoing disruption and heightened security concerns across the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering after Iran's attacks on ships disrupted the waterway, with US-Iran technical talks set to resume in Doha to manage de-escalation and reopen the strait. Mines remain a hazard, with France and Oman announcing a joint effort to de-mine the strait to restore safe and unconditional passage.
Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are causing shipping disruptions, with tanker owners wary of transiting, some vessels abandoning crossings, and approximately 80 mines present in the main transit corridor. Traffic continues at reduced levels via two alternative routes, with a US-Iran ceasefire offering some relief, but the Joint Maritime Information Center has raised the regional threat level to 'substantial'.
Maersk has sharply raised its 2026 earnings outlook amid sustained container market strength, driven by prolonged supply chain disruptions including ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. The carrier continues to restrict bookings to Gulf markets, reroute cargo through alternative hubs, and levy emergency surcharges, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is reportedly picking up again after Iran's recent attacks on vessels.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering after Iran's recent attacks on ships, with approximately 24 vessels including supertankers resuming transits following a US-Iran ceasefire ahead of peace talks. Shipowners are cautiously returning to the Persian Gulf, with key destinations including Iraq's Basrah and Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura, though uncertainty remains as the situation is still developing.
Experts warn that the Strait of Hormuz may remain in a prolonged "gray zone" — neither fully open nor fully closed — due to Iran imposing transit tolls and US sanctions discouraging payment, creating a lasting suppression of shipping flows through the critical chokepoint. This structural disruption could permanently reduce traffic through the strait even after any potential conflict resolution, mirroring the unrecovered Red Sea flows following the US-Houthi deal.
France intercepted the sanctioned Russian tanker Tagor in the Atlantic Ocean and detained its captain, amid broader UK and French pledges to obstruct Russian oil shipments. This signals increased naval enforcement activity in Atlantic and European waters, posing potential rerouting and detention risks for shadow fleet vessels transiting these areas.
The Strait of Hormuz remains at a near-standstill due to Iranian naval mines laid by the IRGC, with the US and Iran still negotiating terms to restore commercial navigation. The UK and France are finalizing a 15-country multinational mine-clearing mission to be deployed immediately upon a US-Iran agreement, but shipping disruptions persist in the meantime.
The Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted due to Iranian naval mining, with vessel traffic well below normal levels for over three months; a 15-nation coalition led by the UK and France is preparing mine-clearance operations pending a US-Iran political agreement. Even after a ceasefire, industry groups warn that weeks of dedicated mine-clearance operations will be required before commercial shipping can safely resume through this critical chokepoint, which handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies.
Iran's IRGC has carried out multiple missile attacks on MSC commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf region, including MSC Panaya (docked at Bahrain's Khalifa Bin Salman port) and MSC Sariska V (leaving Iraq's Port of Umm Qasr), in retaliation for U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers amid an ongoing U.S. blockade. This escalating conflict between U.S. and Iranian forces poses severe disruption risks to maritime traffic across the Persian Gulf, including port operations in Bahrain and Iraq.
A Russian naval combat training exercise involving the submarine Arkhangelsk launching an Oniks cruise missile in the Barents Sea caused a temporary closure of the area north of the Varanger Peninsula and eastward into the Barents Sea to commercial vessels. The closure was brief and linked to the planned drill, but represents a localized disruption to maritime traffic in that northern shipping corridor.
Iran's IRGC has claimed missile and drone attacks on US Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, a US military vessel in the Sea of Oman, and a second MSC vessel (Panaya), amid escalating military exchanges across the Gulf region. The Strait of Hormuz faces severe disruption risk as Iran has issued explicit warnings that any disruption there will be met with an even stricter response, threatening commercial shipping routes through one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints.
The U.S. has adopted a covert strategy to help commercial vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing Iranian naval threats, including drone attacks on civilian mariners, by suggesting alternative routes near the Omani coast and having ships disable their AIS transponders. This situation is causing significant disruptions to commercial shipping through one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints, with rerouting, stealth navigation, and active military drone intercepts all indicating a high-risk operational environment.
The Hormuz conflict of March 2026 triggered a systemic immobilization of maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf through a convergence of Iranian transit permit requirements, war-risk insurance repricing (up to 5% of hull value per transit), and legislative formalization via the newly created Persian Gulf Strait Authority — rendering approximately 140 million barrels of oil and ~1,600 vessels effectively stranded. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted as of the article's writing (early June 2026), with operators facing commercially unviable transit conditions and significant sanctions exposure for compliance with IRGC toll demands.
Ongoing attacks in the Persian Gulf are blocking oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with no imminent resumption in sight; US-Iran negotiations show mixed progress while inventories continue to tighten. Even once the strait reopens, Kuwait Petroleum estimates it will take 6-8 weeks to restore output to 70% of normal levels, with full recovery taking an additional month, signaling prolonged disruption to energy shipping through this critical chokepoint.
The USS Nimitz (CVN-68), the U.S. Navy's oldest nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, is making a five-day port call at Kingston, Jamaica, as part of its final overseas tour before decommissioning. The visit may cause localized port activity and minor disruptions at Kingston, while the carrier's inability to transit the Panama Canal (requiring a route around South America) and potential extended Caribbean presence amid rising U.S.-Cuba tensions could affect regional maritime traffic patterns.
Iran has threatened to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate disruptions around the Bab El Mandeb Strait in response to Israeli military operations in Lebanon and Gaza, suspending indirect nuclear talks with the US. If enacted, these measures would severely disrupt global energy and shipping flows through two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints.
The U.S. military has enforced a naval blockade of Iranian ports since April 13, 2026, intercepting and redirecting ships headed to Iran, including a Hellfire missile strike on a tanker en route to Kharg Island on June 2, 2026. This blockade has already redirected at least 122 vessels and poses severe disruption to maritime traffic in the Arabian Gulf, particularly to and from Iran's major oil export terminal at Kharg Island.